Once seen as a cornerstone of South Asian diplomacy, the relationship between India and Bangladesh is now under strain, with analysts warning that unchecked political interference and unresolved domestic issues could push ties to a breaking point.

As India shelters ousted Bangladeshi leader Sheikh Hasina and raises concerns about Hindu rights in its neighbour, analysts accuse New Delhi of overstepping its bounds and meddling in Dhaka’s internal affairs, according to an article of South China Morning Post published on Sunday.

“The fallout could deepen a growing divide, observers warn, unless both sides embrace urgent diplomacy. Tensions escalated earlier this month when India’s Ministry of External Affairs demanded a fair trial for Hindu minorities in Bangladesh after a court rejected the bail plea of a Hindu priest implicated in a sedition case,” writes Maria Siow, a China-based correspondent.

These concerns followed months of unrest after the ousting of Hasina, who fled to India on August 5 amid massive student-led protests that ended her 15-year rule. Delhi, widely seen as a staunch supporter of Hasina’s Awami League, has reportedly provided her with housing.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) shakes hand with his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi last year, before her ousting. Photo: AP

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) shakes hand with his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi last year, before her ousting. Photo: AP

India’s involvement in Bangladesh’s politics has led to perceptions of interference, said Shafi Md Mostofa, a security studies scholar and associate professor at Dhaka University.

To improve relations, Shafi said Delhi should respect Bangladesh’s sovereignty “by refraining from overt political involvement and instead support democratic processes and institutions”.

“Bangladesh, on its part, must take proactive measures to address minority issues and other domestic challenges, ensuring they do not become leverage points for external influence,” he said, adding that both nations must prioritise government-to-government dialogue to resolve bilateral issues.

But dialogue appears elusive as tensions mount. India recently stepped up security along its northeastern border following inflammatory remarks by Mahfuz Alam, a senior adviser to Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus, who accused Delhi of “ghettoising” and “colonising” populations in the Indian border states of West Bengal, Tripura and Assam. In his now-deleted social media post on December 16, Alam also threatened to annex parts of Indian territory.

Amid the tense atmosphere, India has in recent months scaled back visa operations for Bangladeshi nationals, disrupting travel for the thousands who receive critical medical care in Indian hospitals.

Meanwhile, Indian media has been accused of weaponising the issue of minority rights in Bangladesh, “which exacerbates tensions between the two nations,” said Shafi, noting that while safeguarding minority rights is essential, these concerns require domestic solutions rather than external pressure.

Geoffrey Macdonald, an expert on Bangladesh at the United States Institute of Peace, said that India’s concerns about Hindu safety in Bangladesh were coloured by wider concerns about its neighbour’s political future.

He said India was closely aligned with the deposed Awami League government and is deeply concerned about the emerging political alternative, as Hindus in Bangladesh have long faced persistent low levels of discrimination and violence, which “appears to have increased to some degree” since Hasina’s departure.

“India is justifiably worried about the Hindu community’s safety and legal protections in Bangladesh,” he said. “But Delhi’s rhetoric on the issue appears driven by both genuine concern and broader displeasure with the interim government.”

Given that India had spent years calling the Awami League’s crackdown on its opponents a “domestic matter”, Macdonald said Dhaka now views Delhi’s public criticisms as an effort to undermine its sovereignty.

“India and Bangladesh have more to gain from cooperation than animosity, but more closed-door diplomacy is needed to lower tensions and find common ground,” he said.

The crisis has also fuelled speculation about whether India’s relationship with Bangladesh might begin to replicate the fraught one it has with Pakistan.

Writing in the Deccan Herald newspaper, Delhi-based journalist Bharat Bhushan warned that India risks alienating its neighbour entirely. “It is left with hardly any friends in Bangladesh today,” Bhushan wrote, citing inflammatory remarks by Indian officials and the absence of meaningful gestures to reassure Bangladeshis of goodwill.

For decades, India-Pakistan relations have been marked by hostility rooted in partition-era grievances and territorial disputes over the disputed Kashmir region.

While Delhi’s ties with Bangladesh could follow a similar trajectory, Pavan Chaurasia, a research fellow at the Delh-based India Foundation think tank, said this was unlikely as most Bangladeshis favour friendly ties with India. However, he emphasised that the Yunus government must address its responsibilities towards ethnic minority groups and engage with India’s concerns.

 “India too needs to keep the window of communication with the Bangladeshi establishment open,” Chaurasia said, adding that communication channels were likely being kept open behind the scenes.

Last month, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Dhaka for talks with Yunus and Foreign Affairs Adviser Md. Touhid Hossain, signalling some hope for rapprochement. But with growing anxieties over minority rights, border security, and Bangladesh’s political instability, the path to rebuilding trust remains unclear.

Chaurasia stressed that the next six to seven months will be critical in determining Bangladesh’s future direction. Issues such as government formation, constitutional changes, and voting reforms are all in flux, adding to the uncertainty. For India, he said, it is a case of “wait and watch” while working to secure its borders.

As concerns over violence against Hindus persist, India’s political establishment – from the government to the opposition – continues to monitor the situation closely. Even US president-elect Donald Trump weighed in while on the campaign trail, citing the plight of Bangladesh’s Hindu population as a matter of concern.

“Temples have been vandalised, festivals disrupted, and many [Hindus] have been arrested or killed,” Chaurasia said. With family ties spanning the border, “many of the Hindus, especially from West Bengal … are now worried about the life, liberty and property of their relatives.”

Whether India and Bangladesh can navigate these challenges depends on their ability to set aside mutual distrust and focus on shared interests. For now, the region watches anxiously as two neighbours at odds struggle to avoid a deeper rupture.