At a time when nearly everyone in India who is not aligned with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gave up on their country, the unpredictable voters brought so much of hope back by polling 1.2 percent votes less for the BJP compared to 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

 As expected, the international and Indian press is overloaded with analysis and opinions on why BJP failed to attain a majority on its own. The fact finding will continue, at times like a drab monologue. Yet we need to opine as it was a massive and critical exercise and here’s my two pence.

First reason is straight forward. No one – not even god – who or which Narendra Modi now claims to have an association with – can escape anti-incumbency in a country with a billion voters. BJP knew it and left nothing to chance yet 1.2 percent – who voted for the BJP in last elections – decided to look the other way. 

Maybe they were unhappy, sad, had a fight with their spouse on the day of the poll or simply got tired of the omnipresent prime minister. But then they have taught the naysayers an important lesson: do not judge a five-thousand-year-old civilization on the basis of the last 5-10 years of autocratic interventions. Democracy in India – as yet – appears to be rooted and it would be unwise to underestimate its depth in the future. Though a week ago many were unnerved, out of plain fear, apprehending a pre-WWII Germany type situation in the next term. 

The second takeaway from the poll is the periodic return of coalition politics after one man/woman dominance in Indian politics. The coalition is often led by regional parties and they have emerged from the states to challenge Delhi, when power tilted heavily in favour of the center. 

From the time of Nehru, Indira Gandhi to Narendra Modi – regional parties and leaders have time and again forced Delhi to re-empower the states. The back-and-forth movement of power balance was led by various leaders from Sheikh Abdullah in Kashmir, Annadurai, Karunanidhi, Kamraj to today’s M K Stalin in Tamil Nadu, the Communists like EMS Namboodiripad in Kerala to Jyoti Basu and others in Bengal or Subhash Chandra Bose within Congress in pre-independence India to today’s Mamata Banerjee. The belligerent state leaders often played a significant role to keep India’s federal structure in place, despite deviations. 

BJP in Modi-era nearly dismantled this structure capitalising on the cynicism of the voters in the states. The BJP indicated to extract states’ limited power on the pretence of delivering corruption free governance and gave a free hand to central probe agencies to randomly interrogate key opposition leaders, confiscate assets and arrest indiscriminately including two chief ministers. 

Modi-Shah repeatedly denigrated regional stalwarts like Mamata Banerjee, M K Stalin, Pinarayi Vijayan, Abdullahs in Kashmir to leaders in Punjab, Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh or the northeastern states by initiating investigation and publicly mocking them. Corruption is always an issue across the world but cannot it be used to subvert democratic fundamentals. In an interview Nobel laureate Amartya Sen told this writer that it “cannot be considered right” to subvert the system to clean the system. 

He said, “It was never like this in India that the central government was so concerned about corruption that they promptly used to take action…suddenly now corruption has emerged as a great excuse to send people to jail, to bully them. Therefore, it cannot be considered right that this is being done in our country because there is corruption. Corruption exists in all countries.”

Such actions stem out of supreme arrogance and the arrogance emerged out of two factors. A deep pride in Hindu supremacist philosophy and deeper confidence to win elections with the help of “an exceptionally centralized, Hindutva-driven, neo-liberal, proto-Fascist” ideology. This arrogance and equally toxic confidence left its indelible mark on policies ranging from introduction of amended citizenship law to farm bill, from scrapping of critical permanent jobs in the army – a fountainhead of employment – to introduction of draconian policing plans to digital laws. 

Random arrests of senior journalists to civil society activists – branding them as left-wing insurgents – while refusing to question China even after 20 Indians soldiers were bumped off in the northern border are only few more examples of the toxic arrogance. Considering that BJP was accruing less than 40 per cent of about one billion votes, nearly another one billion’s annoyance went unnoticed, since the population is 1.4 billion. That exploded first on June 4 when the results started pouring in and then again on the night of June 6 when one of the top arrogant of the BJP leaders, actor Kangana Ranaut, was slapped by a member of the security forces for previously humiliating the famers. The country celebrated.

But then politics is an ongoing process. It would be wise for the opposition to remember that Modi – an ace political mind – is down but not. He will buy his time, calm the proceedings and consolidate the defence with new allies who are expected to call the shots for now, and go on an offensive. Modi has handled umpteen challenges and emerged as a winner. He is still the most popular leader in India backed by possibly the most well-oiled party machinery and a robust ideology-driven organisation – the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. We have to wait and watch how he re-brands himself before the next big election – the Delhi Assembly poll in early February. 

So, the prime minister will go on a counter-offensive after a break – like in football – and it would require several skill sets to offset the challenge of Modi 2.0. For now, though, it is time for the cause celebre. 

Suvojit Bagchi is a professional journalist since 1995 and worked with Ananda Bazar Patrika in Kolkata, BBC World Service in Delhi and the Hindu in central India and Kolkata. Presently he writes for a range of publications and works as the East India Correspondent of Bangladesh.