India's strategic shift in arms imports amid rising geopolitical tensions

Global share of imports of major arms by the 10 largest importers, 2020–24

India's evolving security dynamics with China and Pakistan continue to shape its arms imports, making it the world's second-largest arms importer in 2020–24, according to a new report by Swedish think tank SIPRI. India accounted for 8.3% of global arms imports during this period.

However, India's arms imports declined by 9.3% between 2015–19 and 2020–24, reflecting the country's growing capability to design and manufacture its own weapons, thereby reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.

Russia remained India's top arms supplier, accounting for 36% of imports, but this marked a steep drop from 55% in 2015–19 and 72% in 2010–14. India is increasingly turning to Western suppliers, with France, Israel, and the USA emerging as key defense partners. Despite public affirmations of strong ties between India and Russia, India's recent and planned arms procurement trends indicate a definitive pivot toward Western suppliers.

In contrast, Pakistan significantly increased its arms imports by 61% between 2015–19 and 2020–24, as it ramped up procurement of combat aircraft and frigates. Pakistan became the world’s fifth-largest arms importer, accounting for 4.6% of global imports. China has remained Pakistan's dominant supplier, providing 81% of its military imports in 2020–24, up from 74% in the previous five-year period.

The global arms trade saw key shifts, with Russia's arms exports plummeting by 64% between 2015–19 and 2020–24. While India remains Russia’s largest arms customer, accounting for 38% of Russian exports, the declining trend underscores India’s diversification strategy. Meanwhile, France emerged as the world's second-largest arms exporter, with India receiving the largest share (28%) of French arms deliveries, surpassing European recipients.

Globally, the USA maintained its dominance in arms exports, increasing its share from 35% to 43% between 2015–19 and 2020–24. The USA supplied arms to 107 states, with Europe overtaking the Middle East as the largest regional recipient. The shifting landscape underscores India’s strategic recalibration in defense procurement, balancing self-reliance with stronger ties to Western defense industries amid ongoing regional security challenges.

The top 10 arms exporters in 2020–24 were the same as those in 2015–19 but Russia (accounting for 7.8% of global arms exports) fell to third place behind France (9.6%), while Italy (4.8%) jumped from 10th to sixth place.

At least 35 states sent weapons to Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and substantial further deliveries are in the pipeline. Ukraine received 8.8 %of global arms imports in 2020–24. Most of the major arms supplied to Ukraine came from the USA (45%), followed by Germany (12%) and Poland (11%). Ukraine was the only European state among the top 10 importers in 2020–24, although many other European states significantly increased their arms imports in the period.

With an increasingly belligerent Russia and transatlantic relations under stress during the first Trump presidency, European NATO states have taken steps to reduce their dependence on arms imports and to strengthen the European arms industry. Arms exports by the USA increased by 21% between 2015–19 and 2020–24, and its share of global arms exports grew from 35% to 43%. The USA supplied major arms to 107 states in 2020–24.

For the first time in two decades, the largest share of US arms exports in 2020–24 went to Europe (35%) rather than the Middle East (33%). Nevertheless, the top single recipient of US arms was Saudi Arabia (12% of US arms exports). The USA is in a unique position when it comes to arms exports. At 43%, its share of global arms exports is more than four times as much as the next-largest exporter, France. The USA continues to be the supplier of choice for advanced long-range strike capabilities like combat aircraft.