After a faltering start in 2024 following its failure to block the January 7 election, the BNP has resurged as the country’s leading political force by year-end, driven by the July-August mass uprising, with promising prospects ahead, according to political observers.

They said the first two months of 2024 were undoubtedly the toughest ones for the BNP.

The party boycotted the January 7 national election under the Awami League government, and most of its senior leaders, including Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, were either in jail or went into hiding in the face of a strong crackdown by law enforcement agencies, weakening the party and leaving its grassroots in serious frustration.

As party leaders, including Fakhrul, began to walk out of jail amid the Awami League government’s softer stance by March, the BNP made fresh efforts to revitalise its rank and file, but these were not enough to stage a political comeback.

By mid-year, the political landscape began to shift dramatically, allowing the BNP, which had been largely sidelined, to re-enter the political arena.

After the High Court reinstated the job quota that reserves one-third of civil service posts for the children of freedom fighters, students launched an anti-quota movement on July 1, which eventually turned into a one-point movement, leading to the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Awami League from power and ending over 16 years of coercive rule on August 5.

As Sheikh Hasina left the country and her party leaders went into hiding, the BNP seized the moment to assert its dominance.

Political analysts believe that 2024 has been an incredible year for the BNP, as it not only freed itself from all forms of repressive acts this year but also transformed into the largest political party, set to return to power after nearly 18 years since 2006.

Since August 5, the analysts believe, the BNP has been engaging in positive politics with well-thought-out strategies.

They, however, suggest that the party remain alert to the possibility of infighting and become more stringent in containing nefarious acts, such as extortion and grabbing by a section of party leaders and workers, in a bid to maintain its image and popularity.

Began Year with a Bad Note

The party began the year with its central office shut, numerous senior leaders arrested, and others going into hiding amid a mass arrest drive.

Many BNP leaders and activists were detained across the country, including Dhaka, on January 1.

Amid the continued adversities, the BNP conducted a three-day mass campaign distributing leaflets in support of its poll boycott and non-cooperation movement from January 2.

mass movement against Hasina’s regime, claiming that 422 of the 875 martyrs during the July-August protests were affiliated with the BNP.

Khaleda’s Full Release

One of the most significant outcomes of the July-August revolution was the full release of Khaleda Zia from prison. Initially, she had been granted temporary and conditional release in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Following the fall of the Awami League government, Khaleda Zia was fully freed on August 6 by an order from President Mohammed Shahabuddin.

A day after her release, she virtually addressed a BNP rally at Nayapaltan.

On November 21, Khaleda appeared in public for the first time in six years, joining the Armed Forces Day reception.

Tarique’s Revival

Another major development for the BNP was the return of Tarique Rahman, the party's acting chairman, who had been in exile in London since 2008, to politics.

His participation in the political process had been restricted since 2015 due to legal battles, but after the political upheaval in August, media restrictions on his statements were lifted. His comments and speeches were aired on television and social media for the first time in nearly a decade.

Tarique’s return bolstered the BNP’s position as a significant political force.

Although he still faces several cases, many of which are expected to be disposed of soon, this could remove the barriers to his potential return to Bangladesh.

The BNP also overhauled its various units and affiliated bodies by forming new committees as part of its strategy to strengthen the organisation.

Controversies

Despite not being in government, BNP-supported officials secured positions in public administration and the police, increasing the influence of party leaders and workers in various institutions.

However, some BNP leaders and workers reportedly became involved in extortion, land-grabbing, vandalism, and other anti-disciplinary activities.

To address this, the BNP centrally expelled 1,031 leaders and workers and issued show-cause notices to 1,203 others.

Leaders, Analysts Reflect on Success

Contacted for comment, BNP Standing Committee member Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain said, “This year is definitely a memorable year. We have rid ourselves of repressive acts while the nation has been freed from Sheikh Hasina’s fascist and authoritarian government. That is why the outgoing year is a very happy year for the BNP.”

“We believe our party will go to power if people can cast their votes in a free, fair, and impartial election,” he said.

BNP Standing Committee member Gayeshwar Chandra Roy said BNP leaders and activists, along with their family members, tactically joined the student-led movement on the instructions of Tarique Rahman to prevent the Awami League from distorting the narrative.

“Finally, we achieved a Sheikh Hasina-free Bangladesh with the united efforts of the nation. It’s difficult to evaluate this victory. After 17 years, we can breathe in a free environment. Now we want to establish an elected government through exercising our voting rights,” he said.

Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, a former professor at the Department of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University, said that 2024 is undoubtedly an important year for the BNP, as the party could make a comeback to normal politics, free from the barriers and repression it has faced for the past 17 years.

Despite the adversities, he said, the BNP continued its struggle without pause for the restoration of democracy.

Hasanuzzaman said the BNP also played a role in the mass uprising, albeit indirectly. "The BNP is one of the beneficiaries of the mass uprising. They’re now actively engaged in politics as the main political force and moving forward with various good strategies.”

He observed that the BNP is currently benefiting from the absence of its arch-rival Awami League. "So, the party has the full potential to return to power in the next election."