Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition is leading as India counts votes. But trends so far suggest the BJP might fall short of a majority on its own as a united opposition led by the Indian National Congress makes gains.

BJP sweeping the heartland state of Madhya Pradesh

It’s a bright spot for Prime Minister Modi’s party on a day when it grapples with the prospect that its might lose its parliamentary majority.

In the heartland state of Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is sweeping all 29 seats according to the latest election commission leads data. It had won 28 seats in 2019, with the Congress winning the remaining one.

The state is deeply significant for the BJP: As far back as the 1960s, the party’s predecessor, the Bharatiya Jan Sangh, enjoyed significant popularity in Madhya Pradesh, and held about 30 percent of the vote there. This, at a time when nationally, it had little traction.

‘Pushing reforms might be hard for a weaker BJP government’

Vasu Menon, a director at Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, says a narrower-than-expected victory for Modi’s alliance may raise doubts about the new government’s ability to push through “politically difficult reforms seen as crucial to sustain India’s economic growth”.

“Despite this, the fact remains that the BJP-led alliance is still set to win a third term, which means continuity in the government’s infrastructure and manufacturing-led drive to boost economic growth,” he said.

“Valuations for the Indian stock market are not cheap but the macro outlook for India remains more promising than many other major markets, and sharp price corrections can create some interesting investment opportunities.”

Markets against a hung parliament or coalition government: Analyst

Siddhartha Khemka of Mumbai-based Motilal Oswal Financial Services says early trends of the election present a picture quite different from what the exit polls had shown.

“A 10 percent variability from the exit polls is something that the markets would have absorbed easily,” he told the Reuters news agency.

“The market does not want a hung parliament or a coalition government, where you will have a lot of delays in decision making,” Khemka said.

Counting under way for Andhra Pradesh, Odisha state assemblies

The Telugu Desam Party is poised to form the government in Andhra Pradesh as it leads in 132 of 175 seats. The party has also emerged as a deciding force as its main national ally, the BJP, is set to fall short of a majority on its own in parliament.

In the eastern state of Odisha, the BJP is leading in 75 seats in the 147-member legislative assembly.

Election officials take precaution against high heat

Temperatures in the Indian capital were down on Tuesday from highs in the past week of 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit), but election officials and political parties have taken precautions nonetheless as votes are being counted.

Workers carried cases of water into air-conditioned counting stations in New Delhi early in the morning in preparation, while tents outside for security personnel, political parties and others were outfitted with industrial evaporative coolers.

Temperatures in the morning hovered around 37C (99F) in New Delhi and were expected to rise to 41C (106F) by the end of the day.

Current leads show exit polls ‘not very reliable’

The exit polls were “very much off the mark,” analyst Jagdeep Chhokar has told Al Jazeera.

“What this tells us … is that the exit polling agencies, and people who conduct these polls are perhaps not very reliable,” said Chhokar, a former professor at the Indian Institute of Management.

“They may be biased in favour of a party or the person who commissioned these polls, which actually puts their authenticity or integrity in question.”

At least seven exit polls released by Indian media organisations predicted that the BJP and its allies would win 350-380 seats of the 543 in the Lok Sabha. Currently, the BJP and its allies are ahead in 286 seats.